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Banks Anticipate OCR Cuts Starting November

Jul 05, 2024

ASB joins Kiwibank in predicting OCR cuts to begin in November. In its RBNZ Monetary Policy Review preview, ASB notes increasing household strain and a shift in inflation dynamics. Chief economist Nick Tuffley highlights that high interest rates and living costs are pressuring households. While the labor market has been resilient, signs of cost-cutting, slowing wage growth, and job security concerns are emerging.

Tuffley expects inflation indicators to soften, with inflation returning to target by year-end. He warns that maintaining tight monetary policy for too long could harm the economy and employment. ASB anticipates RBNZ will cut the OCR after reviewing the third-quarter CPI and labor market data in October and November. This month’s OCR announcement may provide more insights into inflation risks and the fiscal impact of recent budget measures.

 

 

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